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Matt Josephs Matt Josephs
44-30-1 in the NFL....83-51-3 in college basketball after an 2-1 Sunday. Monday's plays up in the morning.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2018
Quinnipiac vs Drexel
Drexel
+2 -105 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Dragons are 5-5 on the season, but have put up some good numbers offensively. This is a team that has shot 50% or better from the field four times and has eclipsed the 80 point mark five times as well. The Dragons are led by Alihan Demir who is one of five double digit scorers for the team. There's a chance that Kurk Lee plays although he's only been in three contests so far this year. Quinnipiac is the opposite as they have one double digit scorer in Cameron Young and a bunch of guys who have middling stats. They are 4-4 on the year with wins over Lafayette, Dartmouth, Maine and New Hampshire. This is a team that has shot over 40% from the field just twice so that's a concern especially on a neutral court. Drexel has won the last two meetings between the schools. I think they have a good chance to make it three on Sunday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2018
CS-Fullerton vs San Francisco
OVER 142 -115 Lost
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San Francisco has been steamrolling teams this season and has gone over in five of their last nine contests. They have shot 49% or better in five straight and six of their last seven games. The Dons come at you with balance and six guys who average seven points per game or more. They are really good defensively so that is a bit of an issue in terms of the total, but I think they can provide a lot offensively because Fullerton sucks at defense. Fullerton has played four true road games this year allowing 81, 87, 80 and 102. They've got a really good backcourt with Allman and Ahmad, but are looking for help elsewhere. This is a team that wants to play with a quicker pace and because of that they allow more points since they aren't committed as much to the defensive side of the ball. I think this one is an over.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2018
Troy State vs Western Kentucky
OVER 142 -105 Won
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Western Kentucky is back home after two straight on the road. The Hilltoppers are experiencing some changes on the roster with DeSean Murray not playing because he wants to go pro but Lamonte Bearden coming back after serving his suspension. WKU has gone over in five of their nine games and it's because of an offense that has scored 75 or more in three straight and five contests overall. They have also had their problems on the defensive end allowing 70 or more in all but two contests. They have three double digit scorers along with Bearden who has been good for them in the past. Troy has gone over in five of their seven lined games. They've got the same thing as their opponent in that their defense has been shoddy at times but the offense spectacular. Jordon Varnado leads four double digit scorers for the Trojans. Both teams average about 68 positions a game according to kenpom so this may struggle to get to the over, but if you look at the stats, both teams have leaky defenses. I think this over is worth a look. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2018
Packers vs Bears
Packers
+6 -103 at pinnacle
Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Premium

I've tried to fade the Bears several times this season and have had mixed results. They are 9-4 against the spread, but their offense doesn't scare me a ton. Mitchell Trubisky is a very hot and cold quarterback and doesn't have a ton of weapons around him at the skill positions. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard form a nice duo in the backfield and Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel are just okay as wide receivers. It's Chicago's defense that continues to carry the team thanks to a ton of turnovers and the ability to put pressure on the quarterback. Green Bay is coming off a 34-20 win over the Falcons and the defense has perked up a bit as of late. The Packers have given up 20 points each of the last two games. Aaron Rodgers is a guy I want to back in underdog situations whenever I can. The first meeting went to the Packers way back in Week 1 although the Bears dominated the game. I still think the road team is worth a look here.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2018
Lions vs Bills
Bills
-125 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Last week I tried the Bills and it didn't work out, but that's not stopping me. For the second straight game, Buffalo's offense had three turnovers and that's why this team has lost close games to the Dolphins and Jets. I still like Josh Allen and the mobility that he brings at the quarterback position. The Bills' defense continues to be awesome as it has not allowed more than 200 passing yards in five straight games. I can't imagine Detroit will be thrilled to play outdoors in the cold after beating the Cardinals in Arizona last week. In that game, Matthew Stafford had just 96 passing yards. The Detroit offense has scored 22 points or less in seven straight. I'm not a huge believer in the Lions' defense either. Quite frankly, I think the Bills can win an ugly home game in this matchup. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2018
Cowboys vs Colts
UNDER 47½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I don't really like taking unders in the NFL, but this seems like a prime spot for one. The Cowboys have held opponents to just 86.8 rushing yards per game while the Colts are putting up some underrated defensive numbers. Dallas probably should have scored a little more against Philadelphia last week and the Eagles' banged-up defense, but Dak and the offense had three turnovers. The Cowboys could get some pressure on Andrew Luck and since the Colts don’t run it too well T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron will be key. I think this game will depend on field position. Indianapolis has gone under in four straight while Dallas has gone under in five of six road games this year and 16 of its last 22 overall away from Jerry World. 

SERVICE BIO

My name is Matt. I've been handicapping sports for many years and I'm not going to dazzle you with numbers and percentages. Just know that when you buy my picks, you get someone who looks at all the angles and does the work to get you winners. When it comes to the college sports, I specialize on the mid-major/non power five games.