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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 25, 2019
A's vs Cardinals
UNDER 8½ -100 Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under A's/Cardinals (8:15 ET): The Cardinals kind of "owe me" here after their four-run ninth inning cost me an Under bet Sunday night. Of course, their four runs came on the heels of the Angels also scoring four times in the top half of the frame! But spite isn't the only motivating factor in this play for Tuesday. As was the case w/ the Angels over the weekend, Oakland loses its designated hitter here as it's a NL park, so expect some dropoff from a team currently averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road.  Take the Under here. 

Jack Flaherty goes tonight for St. Louis. Like Miles Mikolas (who started Sunday's game), Flaherty is a much better pitcher here at Busch Stadium. His ERA and WHIP at home are 2.49 and 0.83 as opposed to 6.68 and 1.663 on the road. That's quite the split there. You should also note that the Cards have been shut out three different times w/ Flaherty starting, the most recent being his last time out which was here at home (6-0 loss to the Marlins). Flaherty allowed three runs over seven innings that day, so don't blame him for the setback. Also, in its last eight games, St. Louis has scored more than five runs only one time. 

Oakland's Chris Bassitt has pitched pretty well this season, giving up more than 3 ER in only ONE of his 11 starts. That's pretty impressive as is a 3.07 ERA and 1.091 WHIP on the road. Like Flaherty at home, Bassitt tends to pitch better on the road. So we should be getting the "best of both starting pitchers" Tuesday. In its last series, Oakland managed only 14 runs in four games. The Under is 12-3 the L15 games here in St. Louis and 8-1 their last nine series openers. The Under is also 11-4-1 the L16 times they've hosted an American League team. Low-scoring game tonight. 10* Under A's/Cardinals

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 25, 2019
Mets vs Phillies
OVER 10½ -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): The Phillies beat the Mets 13-7 yday and in the process snapped a six-game losing streak. In those six consecutive losses, they scored a grand total of 14 runs. So they nearly doubled that last night and also finished w/ a season-high in 19 hits. It may not be quite the same level of offense here on Tuesday, but it won't need to be as both teams showed yday when they combined for 20 runs. The Mets are now slouch offensively on the road as they average 5.6 runs per game, which is far more than they average at Citi Field! This one has "Over" written all over it.

For the 1st time all season, Jake Arrieta has delivered B2B quality starts for the Phillies. Given that information, what's the chance he makes it three in a row? This will be the Mets third time seeing Arrieta this season. He has pitched reasonably well in the two prior starts, but my thinking is that the third time may very well be the charm here for the Mets. Let's not lose sight of the fact they scored 7 runs on 15 hits last night. Despite coming off B2B quality starts, Arrieta still has a 4.54 ERA and 1.464 WHIP his L7 starts overall. I think it may not be a great night for him. 

Speaking of "not great nights," that's how you could describe Walker Lockett's start last Monday for the Mets. Starting for the 1st time all year, Lockett was charged with six runs (on five hits) and lasted only 2 1/3 innings. That left him with an unsightly 23.18 ERA and 2.575 WHIP. The Phillies offense is due to continue turning things around here. Meanwhile, the Over is 8-1-2 the L11 times the Mets have been off a loss. The Over is also 5-2 the last seven times Arrieta has started at home against a team w/ a losing record. The Mets are 37-42 on the season. 8* Over Mets/Phillies

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 25, 2019
Nationals vs Marlins
UNDER 7 +102 Tie
Play Type: Top Premium

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (7:10 ET): So Max Scherzer certainly seems to have "regained" his mojo. Not that he ever really lost it, but him starting the year w/ a 2-10 team start record seemed rather unfathomable. He's since won all four starts in June and has been rather dominant in doing so. In 29 innings of work, Scherzer has allowed just three runs on 16 hits! Two of those three runs allowed were solo home runs. He also has 44 strikeouts during this time. Miami is a team he's handled well throughout his career (12-4, 3.20 ERA), so expect Scherzer to be his usual dominant self on Tuesday. 

But Scherzer isn't the only pitcher I expect to throw well tonight. Miami's Trevor Richards might also have a losing TSR, but like Scherzer he's still pitched well. In five of his last six starts, Richards has allowe 1 or 0 ER. He faced the Nationals earlier in the year and it was a quality outing as he gave up only three runs in 6 1/3. Par for the course though, Miami didn't score any runs in that game and lost 5-0. The Marlins are the NL's lowest scoring team mind you and only average 3.2 runs per game here at home. I think it should be pretty obvious by now which way I am going.

The fact Washington is 1-9 following an off-day is enough to scare me off of them, especially given the current market price. But the Under looks to be a safe bet given the two starting pitchers. Yes, Scherzer does have an 0-2 TSR this year against the Marlins. But he allowed just one run the last time he faced them and this particular edition of the Marlins is very weak offensively (see above). Scherzer has gone 11 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than three runs. I expect a good old fashioned pitchers duel here. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Rangers vs Tigers
UNDER 9 -113
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Rangers/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has lost the opener of this series, 5-3, and five straight overall. They've actually lost 9 of 10 and are a horrid 4-16 overall in June as their season slowly sinks into the abyss. The Tigers have been outscored by 142 runs this season, which is the second worst margin in all of baseball, and they are the lowest scoring team at just 3.5 runs per game. But as reflected in the odds change, they do have a "fighting chance" Wednesday night w/ Matthew Boyd on the mound. Though he has a 6-10 TSR and has been roughed up a little bit his last two starts (both were on the road), Boyd has been the best starter on a bad team. I'm taking the Under tonight. 

Texas is one of the highest scoring teams in all of baseball as well as one of its biggest surprises. They are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the second Wild Card in the American League and just a percentage point ahead of Boston. Few, if any, predicted that before the start of the season. They've now won three straight, taking advantage of a weak schedule that's had them play the White Sox and Tigers. Speaking of surprises, Mike Minor is as big as any for the ballclub. His last six starts have all gone Under, he's won his last four and he has a 2.42 ERA/0.896 WHIP his L3. 

Boyd has been beat up a bit in B2B outings, but as I said earlier, both were on the road. His L2 home starts have seen him allow only three runs in 13 IP. But if not many people turn out for this game, I don't blame them as the Tigers are getting outscored by nearly THREE full runs per game at Comerica Park this season. Not sure if I've ever seen anything like that in my career. This shapes up to be a REAL low-scoring game. The Under is 24-9-1 in Minor's L34 starts overall. 10* Under Rangers/Tigers

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Rockies vs Giants
UNDER 7½ -102 Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Under Rockies/Giants (3:45 ET): Similar to Monday's game where we won w/ the Under (Rockies won 2-0), the public is erroneously loading up on the Over today. Considering last night's game (4-2 Giants win) also stayed Under, I'm just not sure why that is. It's a proven fact that when you take the Rockies outside the confines of Coors Field, their offensive output goes down rather dramatically. They average a league high 6.9 runs per game, but are at just 4.4 on the road. As for the Giants, they are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball, ranking 28th in runs scored, last in batting average and 29th in OPS. Take the Under again this afternoon.

It also helps our cause here that Colorado will send German Marquez to the hill. While the Rockies' hitters may not like hitting the road, the team's pitchers certainly do. The dichotomy is perhaps best exemplified through Marquez's numbers as he has 5.70 ERA and 1.602 WHIP at Coors, but a 3.02 ERA and 0.794 WHIP on the road. That WHIP is really impressive when you think about it. In fact, it's the lowest WHIP on the road among any starting pitcher (in all of MLB!) w/ at least eight starts. Marquez pitched a one-hit shutout against the Giants, here in San Francisco, back on April 14th. 

Just three days prior that CG effort from Marquez, the Giants' Jeff Samardzija threw seven shutout innings of his own against the Rockies. San Francisco won that game 1-0. The Under is now 5-2-1 in the eight head to head matchups this season w/ three shutouts. Samardzija is off a couple of shaky starts, but he's been a much better pitcher at home this year (3.16 ERA). But he shouldn't expect a lot of run support here as the Giants average just 3.2 rpg at home. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Royals vs Indians
UNDER 9 -114 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Under Royals/Indians (1:10 ET): This is the final game and rubber match of a three-game series between the AL Central rivals. Cleveland opened the series w/ a 3-2 victory before losing yday, 8-6, a result which snapped a four-game win streak. I had the Tribe in Monday's opener and they should be in good hands again today (as you can tell from the odds) w/ Trevor Bauer pitching. But, as tempting as it may be, I'm not about to lay that kind of price. Instead, I'm going with the better value in the Under as Bauer should shut the KC lineup down and the Indians' offense won't do too much either. 

Bauer hasn't displayed the consistency you want to see, but he still should be considered one of the better pitchers in the American League and certainly within his division. Though he did not last long his previous start (just four innings), note that his start before that was a complete game shutout. Interestingly enough, both starts came against the same team (Detroit). Bauer has a 3.01 ERA in 14 previous starts vs. Kansas City and has yet to face them in 2019. The Under is 6-1-2 his L9 starts against the Royals. 

It was a stunning comeback last night for KC as they scored five runs in the top of the ninth, four of them coming on a grand slam. Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it came at the expense of Brad Hand, who had previously been perfect in save situations for Cleveland. A repeat of such an inning from the Royals is highly unlikely here though. They do have started Jake Junis to lean on, however. Junis has allowed just 2 ER in each of his L3 starts. The Indians' offense has been hot of late, but still sports rather pedestrian numbers for the year. 8* Under Royals/Indians

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