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Alex Smart Sports - Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 25, 2019
Storm vs Aces
Aces
-6 -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Aces have not been consistent early on this season, but they are very under rated and have proven how explosive they can be while, my power ranking suggest the Seattle Storm are over achieving. This WNBA market is highly inefficient and my number suggests it should be closer to -8 favoring the Aces.. thus we have value laying the lumber . 

SEATTLE is 18-37 ATS L/55 in road games after a win by 6 points or less.Hughes is 24-41 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 40% or less in all games. 

Play on the Aces to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 25, 2019
Rays vs Twins
Twins
-103 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Rays LH Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) vs. Twins RH Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18)

Snell  the Rays starter tonight vs Minnesota is coming off the shortest start of his career. He lasted one-third of an inning Wednesday against the Yankees and allowed six runs. He has allowed at least six runs in three of his last 10 starts and is fade material here in this spot vs a Minnesota team that owns the most prolific offence in MLB at 5.7 runs per tilt  which includes a major league leading  147 home runs. Note: 

Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 2-5 in Snells last 7 road starts.Rays are 0-4 in Snells last 4 starts vs. American League Central.

Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay is winless in four straight series (0-2-2) and are not playing consistent baseball at the moment despite of a fast start and overall are 4-9 L/13 overall. 

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the ML

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Rays vs Twins
Rays
-103 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

The Rays won 10 of Morton's first 14 starts, during which he went 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. But Tampa Bay has lost each of his last two starts, butIm betting on a bounce bak effort from a very under rated hurler.Morton, the American League ERA leader at 2.31, is throwing his curve more than any other pitch and holding opponents to a .118 batting average with it. Minnesota is an explosive team that can hit top tier fire ballers, but they have shown some struggles  against hurlers like Morton. I know the Rays have struggled of late, and that they will go against a tough pitcher in Odoirizzi but according to my power rankings matchup well here from a value perspective on this line. 

Rays are 5-0 in Mortons last 5 starts vs. American League Central.Rays are 7-2 in Mortons last 9 road starts.

MLB Home teams (MINNESOTA) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games are 164-222 L/5 seasons for a go against 58% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 26, 2019
Sun vs Wings
UNDER 149 -110
Play Type: Premium

Connecticut (9-2) had its seven-game winning streak suddenly snapped Sunday in a 93-75 loss at Chicago, as they looked exhausted. This team has had problems in the recent past controlling their run and gun ways, and exhaustion has caught with them. The Sun now playing their 2nd straight road game and 3rd game over in the L/5 days Im betting their tired legs wont allow them to run with wreck-less abandon against a Dallas team that is  both offensively challenged and defensively aware of making sure they don't get involved in a shoot out. This combination Im betting makes for a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers estimations might indicate.

I know Dallas looked defensively hapless and helpless last time out allowing 86 points in a 86-68 loss. However it must be noted that Agler is 21-6 UNDER in home games after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1997 with a . combined average score of 144.5 ppg.Agler is 24-8 UNDER in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 136 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 26, 2019
Mystics vs Sky
UNDER 164½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I think there are alot of numbers here that might scream over to the public but as usual the public over reacts to recency trends which is gives us value on what my own projections estimate to be a slightly bloated total giving us value with an under wager. 

WASHINGTON is 15-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.2 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER  in road games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 158.8 ppg scored.

WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (WASHINGTON) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent hot team - having won 6 or 7 games are 71-33 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (WASHINGTON) - after one or more consecutive overs, a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 42-17 . UNDER 22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Nationals vs Marlins
Marlins
+137 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Nationals LH Patrick Corbin (6-5, 3.90 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Zac Gallen (0-0, 1.80)

Gallen allowed one run over five innings with six strikeouts in his Major League debut Thursday in St. Louis. The 23-year-old settled for a no-decision, and will now have the momentum and confidence to get his first win here vs the Washington Nationals. Note"  Gallen at Triple-A New Orleans, garnered a powerful 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts before he was promoted .Meanwhile, Corbin had a strong effort last time out, but previous to that has  been beaten up on in his previous three trips to hilll, giving up 20 runs and 22 hits over 12 2/3 innings of sub par work, and could easily return to those negative output vs a up trending Miami team that is very under valued on this this line.Nationals are 0-4 in Corbins last 4 road starts. CORBIN is 2-11  against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  CORBIN is 6-14 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Home team is 13-3 in Dreckmans last 16 games behind home plate.

WASHINGTON is 11-22 against the money line in road games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons and is 7-18  against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.  

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - very bad NL offensive team (3.5 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season are 83-41 for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 26, 2019
Blue Jays vs Yankees
Yankees
-1½ -140 at 5Dimes
Lost
$140.0
Play Type: Premium

 Blue Jays RH Trent Thornton (2-5, 4.25 ERA) vs. Yankees LH James Paxton (5-3, 3.75)

James Paxton the Yankees stater  has won back-to-back starts, combining to permit three runs and 13 hits over 11 innings (2.45 ERA). He has walked four against 14 strikeouts in those outings. His current form and the fact they he is backed by one of baseballs most explosive offences averaging 5.7 rpg vs righties like the Jays starter Thornton makes this a viable runline option this afternoon favoring the Yankees.

Note: The Jays offence has struggled in day games this season averaging just 3.1 rpg, while the Yankees offence has averaged 6.5 rpg in day tilts.

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season are 13-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees on the RL -1.5

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.