According to my projections  tell me we have value with an under wager here in this tilt between the Sixers and Nets. This total has gotten bigger with each game,  and now the linesmkaers have over adjusted . Brooklyn cant keep on just trying to run and gun and blow by the Sixers, and Im betting their coaching staff makes enough adjustments here today to thwart the Sixers flow. Afternoon games have a long term tendency of being played at a slower pace which Im betting this aids our under wager cashing.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 UNDER  in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road win, in April games are 51-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion .rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Blues won Game 5 by a 3-2 margin Thursday in Winnipeg, overcoming a two-goal deficit in the third period and getting the winner from Jaden Schwartz with 15 seconds remaining in regulation. With this game being a do or die situation for one team and series clincher for the other Im expecting both sides to be extra careful with mistakes, which Im betting translates to total score that will remain on the low side of the total. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE sprinkled in with top tier goaltending has me recommending an under wager tonight in this tilt. 

Play UNDER

Atlanta is struggling having lost three in a row, while the Tribe despite of struggling at the plate at times this season continue to find ways to win and are on a 3 game win streak and have won 9 of their L/13, and get the nod again here tonight. The Indians are 8-0 SU with Corey Kluber at home when their opponent is on a 3+ loss streak, winning by an average of 6.9 runs per game. 

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA3.33 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the ML

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

This is a hard fought series between two pretty evenly matched teams. With the Jets on the verge of elimination I look for Winnipeg in all out desperation mode to keep the road team winning trend alive here in this game, and take this to a 7th game. 

WINNIPEG is 19-8 ATS  in road games in April games since 1996.WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS  in road games after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game this season. Winnipeg is 8-1 SU L/9 here in St.Louis.

Play  on the Winnipeg Jets to win on the ML

RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)

Porcello has struggled out of the gate this season, but is still a viable hurler, who has pitched well at Tropicana in his career, going 8-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 starts. Meanwhile, TBs Morton who got off to fast start this season looked mortal after is off his shortest outing of the season where he went just 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out. 

Value here on a Red Sox team that will be woken up out of their World Series hangover slumber vs a strong looking Rays team. 

BOSTON is 12-7 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  2.000 or more over his last 3 starts are 17-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Red Sox on the ML

Arizona has momentum entering this game vs the Cubs after winning 4 straight games and will get my backing here today.

Greinke is in top form and is now looking for his third straight win. The D-backs' ace is coming off  seven-inning gem in a victory over San Diego on April 14, allowing two runs (both earned) on four hits over seven, striking out six while walking one. Over his last three starts, Greinke has struck out 25, while walking three. He also had two hits against the Pads and scored twice. He is batting .444 on the year with a homer and a 1.722 OPS

DARVISH  the Cubs is 2-8  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DARVISH is 7-14  against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

ARIZONA is 23-11  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Arizona DBacks on the ML

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

This game and series between the Pistons and the Bucks is a complete mismatch, and the first two lopsided scores favoring Milwaukee were no flukes. No even home court advantage Im betting will save the Pistons from another beatdown.

MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with the average margin of victory coming by 13 ppg.

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS vs. division opponents this season with the average point differential clicking in at +13 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)

As  Left-hander Brett Anderson (3-0, 2.63) is in top tier form, and gives us a strong opportunity to cash a ticket here this afternoon in Oakland.

SANCHEZ  the Jays starter is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 10.80 and a WHIP of 2.401.

OAKLAND is 21-9  against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. 

The Athletics are 17-0 on the ML off a game as a favorite in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter and it is not a series opener. Toronto is 0-18 ML as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of a road series when they are off a game as a dog in which they had more team-left-on-base.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - VGS Leads 3-2

Vegas  in five playoff games against San Jose in Las Vegas with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes has garnered shutouts in two games, including a 28-save performance in a 5-0 win on Tuesday in Game 4. Im betting on Fleury standing tall again, and for San Jose to struggle burying the biscuit in their decisive game 6 showdown. Both teams will be proactive in their approach to playing mistake free hockey in this important tilt. VEGAS is 13-4 UNDER  in home games after a division game this season with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. 

NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in April games are 54-29 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

#1 GOALTENDERS: BOSTON - TUUKKA RASK, TORONTO - FREDERIK ANDERSEN

With one of these teams on the verge of elimination and the other looking to extend this series both sides will be really paying attention to keeping their mistakes to a minimum via a very conservative game plan that will focus on scoring in transition. 

TORONTO is 9-3 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season

TORONTO is 11-1 UNDER  in home games off a road win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.2 gpg. BOSTON is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.1 gpg scored. 

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Raptors have now won and completely controlled  back to back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead, and look like viable road favorites tonight to deliver the goods again vs a Orlando Magic side that is in a shooting funk for the first time since they made their late season run to the play offs. We have concurring momentum patterns forming, with the Magic slumping at the worst possible time, and the powerful Dinos finally starting to show their dominance. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 8-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

DAVID PRICE (L) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)

The Rays’ starter today vs the BoSox,  Tyler Glasnow, has been brilliant and over powering  since being acquired by the Rays in the  Chris Archer deal at last seasons deadline. The righty hurler in 80 innings  of top tier work owns a solid  4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.01. He offers is alot value here on this line as the public gravitates to the BoSox because of them grabbing the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, the BoSox starter Price, goes against a strong LHP hitting team in the Rays. The Rays have cashed 60% of theirL/52 vs southpaw starters.TAMPA BAY is 15-10  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 2-7  against the money line in day games this season. 

Red Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.

Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games.Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Rays are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a loss.Rays are 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 17-6 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rays are 46-19 in their last 65 home games.Rays are 28-12 in their last 40 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 42-18 in their last 60 overall.Rays are 54-24 in their last 78 games on astroturf.Rays are 26-12 in their last 38 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 38-18 in their last 56 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 4-0 in Glasnows last 4 starts.

Play on TB to win on the ML

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

I know alot is being made of the DeMarcus Cousins injury, but from a defensive perspective thats a good thing for the Warriors. As for the Warriors offence they have more than enough guns , to make up for his absence and like I said, they now no longer have a defensive liability on the floor. 

I know the Clippers played a tremendous game last time out, and shocked the Warriors, but it must be noted that the Warriors are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the game after a defeat when taking on  a Western Conference team in the playoffs. Overall the Dubs have cashed 13 of their L/18 on the road and can go from being up by a few points to DDs in the flash of an eye, so laying points with them here in a bounce back situation is not that scary a proposition vs a LA CLIPPERS team that is 2-11 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg.  

Play on Golden State to cover

MAX FRIED (L) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R)

The Braves starter today Fried worked 16 1/3 innings before allowing his first earned run this season. The lefty's velocity was down during his most recent start, but he still managed to complete six innings . But that downgrade in velocity is a concern, and gives me cause in fading him here vs a streaking Cleveland team. Meanwhile,  the Tribes starter Bieber didn’t have his best stuff on Tuesday in Seattle, but he battled through six-plus innings and gave up just one run on four hits. He’s throwing his slider at a higher rate this year, and hitters are just 4-for-29 against the offering which is a plus here vs a Braves group that prefers straight up heat. 

Cleveland has the edge  this Sunday night and Im recommending we take them on the ML. 

Braves are 17-36 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 17-37 in their last 54 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 5-17 in their last 22 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.

Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts.Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts on grass.Indians are 7-1 in Biebers last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.Indians are 6-1 in Biebers last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7  or more /game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-39 /5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to win on the ML

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Boston can wrap this series up this Sunday, and thats what Im betting they do. The men from Bean town have owned the Pacers and nothing suggests anything will change today. I think some pundits are surprised the Celtics have righted their ship after a bumpy ride the end of their season, and Im not 100% sure that they can continue this type of play into the next series. But what i do know is that the Celtics matchup well vs a Pacers team that did not look cohesive entering the playoffs. Note:  INDIANA is 4-12 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Teams down 3-0 are 3-12 SU L/15 times dating back the 2016 season.

BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons which was the case in game 3 of this series. Boston is 6-1 L/7 here in Indiana . 

Play on Boston Celtics to cover