Western Kentucky is averaging 87 ppg at home this season, and will force Troy into a uptempo game. Troy has averaged 75+ ppg so they can can reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their won when called upon. and scored 88 points last time out.  With that said, look for this tilt to end up on the high side of the Total. 

TROY is 7-0 OVER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 3 seasons.  with a combined average of 157 ppg scored.

HC Stansbury is 15-4 OVER in home games off an upset win as an underdog in all games with a combined average of 149.8 ppg scored. ( W.Kentucky upset @ Arkansas 78-77 last time out) Look for them to run and with confidence in the followup)

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (W KENTUCKY) - off a road win, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 27-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Sunday night's key prime time matchup in the NBA features the top teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences. Both teams are banged up, and missing players. But one key players that Im betting makes a difference here tonight will be hard to replace for the Raptors and that is center Jonas Valanciunas, who just underwent surgery and is out for extended period of time.It must also be noted that Raps Forward Kawhi Leonard also just recently missed two games with a hip injury,  and is less than 100% and guard Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a thigh injury.The Nuggets snapped the Raptors' eight-game winning streak with a 106-103 victory on Dec. 3 and I know the Raps will be out looking for revenge, but you don'T always get what you want as the Nuggets matchup well vs this type of opponent. 

Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest and are 3-8 ATS L/11 in Denver.Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall

 Denver is 14-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. Denver is 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Toronto.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 43-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

CSUN is coming off of a ugly loss at San Diego, which halted a two game win streak for the Matadors.They are 3-6 overall, which includes a 1-3 home record. Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Pacific team on a 3 game winning streak.

CBB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 55-95 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CBB Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 1-44 L/5 seasons for a go against   98% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 9.8 ppg. 

Play on Pacific to cover 

I'll start off by saying  that I am not much an admirer of the Pelicans and HC Gentry system. I know he has hands full trying to find stablemates and side kicks for super star Anthony Davis, but this team, runs on Davis's energy, and when he's not 100% , which he's not, the team is also less than 100% The Pelicans have not won back to back games since mid November , and just don't have any real consistency. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Heat, are a well coached team behind, Spoelstra  who knows how to deal with teams like the Pelicans going 16-5 ATS L/21  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game. Miami despite of not having a super star like Davis in their lineup work hard, and Im betting they get us the cover in this spot via their usual blue collar efforts.

Spoelstra is 22-8 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games as the coach of MIAMI. 

MIAMI is 11-2 ATS  in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS is 1-11 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

The Tennessee Titans must win their final three games to have a chance at the AFC's final wild-card spot, starting Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Needless to say the Titans will be aggressive and hell bent on staying alive here vs the Giants today. I know the Omen have been playing well and have won 2 straight, but against a desperate opponent  with the backs up against the wall Im betting they 're  in trouble today. 

NY GIANTS are 7-20 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 

Injury update: NYG Odell Beckham Jr is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Tennessee ( Quad ). 

NFLHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

This must be very humiliating for a NFL championship team  like the Philadelphia Eagles to be DD underdogs to a LA Rams team that despite of being explosive and respected by the public and pundits a like has still not won anything. Im betting the Eagles are pumped to prove their detractors wrong and to finally show us what made them champs last season, vs a team that already has a play off spot marked on the calendars and have little left to play for and just want to stay healthy .  With that said, it must be noted that defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 ATS since 1980 as underdogs of more than 9 points and Im betting they will be 4-0 ATS when this final whistle blows here tonight.

Injury update: Wentz is a not a 100% go here this week and if he  does not play, the Eagles will go with Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season. So either way this game remains a play on situation for the Eagles. 

NFLRoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December game are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but have been competitive at home lately , beating Denver last week, and prior to that pounding Oakland 34-3 and then losing a heart breaker to the up trending NY Giants 27-23. Two weeks ago they were annihilated  on the scoreboard 43-16 by the team their hosting today the Seahawks back in Seattle . Note: Seahawks were however outgunned by 127 yards in that above mentioned tilt so the score was not indicative of the play, and as a matter of fact the Seahawks have managed Ws of late despite of being out yarded in 3 straight tilts. So Pete Carrolls  Seabirds are performing optimally behind a Las Vegas style smoke and mirrors magic show and are not solid road favs here despite of the all the accolades their getting. With revenge on board I now expect the 49ers to make a game of this and get us the cover, vs a side that in my humble opinion is a  over rated public favorite. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 ATS L/35 seasons for a 69% long term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

New England  enters this tilt against struggling Pittsburgh behind future HOF QB Tom Brady  off a loss vs the Dolphins last time out (34-33), as their bad luck vs them was extended thanks to a freak play that saw the Dolphins win on the last play of the game . The Pats are now  just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS  when Brady plays the Fins in Miami .There is a silver lining however, here, as Brady is 25-2 SU overall away during the final month of the season,  and when going against a  below .600 team that does not include the Dolphins he  is a  perfect 17-0 SU.New England is also 23-5 SU off a loss since 2010, including 15-3 SUATS away. With Pittsburghs Big Ben Rothlisberger not completely 100% healthy and showing signs of his advanced age, and the beatings he has taken in his career the Steelers don't look like solid options here. 

Belichick is 7-0 ATS L/7 off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25  or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25  or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-7 ATS L/35 seasons for a 81% conversion  rate for bettors. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 

 The Cowboys are red hot right now and have won and covered 5 straight, but they are in an emotional letdown spot after a hard fought OT victory vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last time out. and susceptible to being flat in an unfriendly environment.  Thats not a good omen for the Boyz chances this week as  NFL teams coming off a SUATS OT victory are just  13-31-1 ATS the last four seasons, including 6-23 SUATS when  they're not the favorite. Furthermore, Indy QB Andrew Luck is a money QB and owns a  13-4 ATS career mark at home in games against foes with a better record,   The Colts are no pushovers and have won 6 of their L/7 and  deserve to be favoured in this tilt against Americas team , as they are   one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both total offence and total defence. 

DALLAS is 14-30 ATS  L/44 in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 game.

NFL Home favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover